Report projects major growth in LGBTQ voters in coming decades

Oct 13, 22
Report projects major growth in LGBTQ voters in coming decades

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The LGBTQ vote can have an impact in battleground states, the report suggests. In both 2030 and 2040, the percentage of eligible voters who are LGBTQ is projected to exceed the national average in Georgia, Arizona, Texas, Nevada and Colorado. Ohio is projected to have the highest percentage change, jumping from 10 percent in 2020 to 18 percent in 2040.

Earlier this year, Agenda PAC, a new liberal super PAC, launched to defeat anti-LGBTQ candidates — with one of the first being Doug Mastriano, the Republican candidate for Pennsylvania governor. Mastriano has said that LGBTQ couples should not be allowed to adopt children, gay marriage should not be legal and transgender females should not be permitted to compete in women’s sports.

Other candidates in battleground races have also spoken out against LGBTQ issues. Amid reports that Republican Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate race paid for a previous partner’s abortion — which he has denied and POLITICO has not independently verified — he has said he supports Georgia’s abortion law, which bans abortion in most cases after fetal cardiac activity is detected, usually after about six weeks of pregnancy. Over the summer, he would not say if he would vote to write same-sex marriage into law.

“This would be a political earthquake across the country, particularly with a state like Texas — having this huge LGBTQ population, a growing number of allies as well, in the state looking for pro-equality politicians that at the statewide level in particular, are not currently seeking the votes of LGBTQ voters by supporting pro-equality policies,” Wetrosky said.

Just last week, a federal judge ruled in favor of Texas and halted implementation of two Biden administration rules concerning LGBTQ protections for employees and children. Last year, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a lawsuit against the rules. Biden has condemned these moves made by Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s administration.

“The Biden Administration’s attempts to radicalize federal law to track its woke political beliefs are beyond dangerous,” Paxton said in a statement following the ruling. “I will continue to push back against these unlawful attempts to use federal agencies to normalize extremist positions that put millions of Texans at risk.”

Recent polling finds Abbott ahead of Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke. POLITICO forecasts the race as likely Republican.

“These states and these leaders [are] on the wrong side of history, but I think they’re really on the wrong side of the demographics, even,” said Shoshana Goldberg, lead author of the study and director of public education and research at the Human Rights Campaign Foundation. “Just the basic numbers suggest that where these states are going versus where their states’ politicians think that they’re going, suggests a pretty big mismatch.”

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